Hockeybird.com: UFA Statistical Madness!

Before my explanations on the statistical madness that follows, who would you say are the three most all around valuable UFA's at the forward position? Common opinion would probably say Holik, Guerin and Amonte. According to my statistical tomfoolery, that would be correct!

Ah, but who is the FOURTH most all around valuable UFA forward? Oates? Not even close. Selanne? No, and in fact, he's one of the WORST all around UFA forwards out there. After the Big 3, the next best three UFA forwards are Cassels, Dahlen and Lang. Three names you're not hearing much about, ironically.

Okay, here's the payoff. I took the 2001-2002 stats of 13 prominent UFA forwards including some "secondary stats" (hits, takeaways, PIM, etc.), did an average on them per game, weighted the system so more important stats (like goals per game) were worth more than others, added them up where the 1st place player gets 13 points (or 26 or 39 if the stat is weighted) down to the 13th place player getting 1 point (or 2 or 3) and came up with some interesting conclusions.

Keep in mind, this list is not intended to be an end-all-be-all guide to which free agent forwards are more valuable than others. It's just another piece of information for you to use. There are dozens of things that make UFA's appealing (or unappealing) like character, age, injury history and so on, which are not represented here.

I will explain each stat as we get to it, and let you know how I weighed that stat's overall importance (quick guide: Goals Per Game x3, Assists and Hits Per Game x2, everything else x1). Following the stats are some notes on the findings.

GOALS PER GAME (I weighed this stat more important than all of the others with a weight of 3x, because, well, it is. Goals win hockey games. Guns could also win hockey games, but no one has tried it yet.)
1. Guerin: .526
2. Dahlen: .333
3. Amonte: .329
4. Young: .328
5. Holik: .309
6. Lang: .290
7. Selanne: .254
8. Cassels: .208
9. Gelinas: .181
10. Oates: .175
11. Rucinsky: .147
12. Domi: .122
13. Brashear: .111

ASSISTS PER GAME (This was weighed at 2x. I think you'd agree that assists are not as important as goals, but more important than most other stats.)
1. Oates: .800
2. Cassels: .736
3. Lang: .516
4. Amonte: .476
5. Dahlen: .420
6. Rucinsky: .360
7. Holik: .358
8. Guerin: .321
9. Selanne: .305
10. Brashear: .284
11. Young: .284
12. Gelinas: .222
13. Domi: .135

PIM PER GAME (You could go either way with this stat, depending on the type of player you want for your team. Generally, higher penalty minutes speak of an aggressive, physical player, although that's not always a good thing [see Fleury]. Most people, including myself, would prefer aggressive players who take penalties now and then, so I used PIM as a positive stat - the more, the better.)
1. Brashear: 2.46
2. Domi: 2.12
3. Guerin: 1.67
4. Holik: 1.20
5. Amonte: .817
6. Rucinsky: .560
7. Selanne: .488
8. Gelinas: .417
9. Cassels: .415
10. Young: .388
11. Oates: .350
12. Lang: .258
13. Dahlen: .116

SHOTS PER GAME (Self explanatory. Shots on goal is an underrated stat. Besides the obvious, "you miss 100% of the shots you don't take", higher SOG could make the opposing goalie more fatigued, among other things.)
1. Guerin: 4.55
2. Holik: 3.33
3. Young: 3.13
4. Amonte: 2.83
5. Lang: 2.82
6. Selanne: 2.46
7. Dahlen: 2.04
8. Rucinsky: 1.71
9. Gelinas: 1.68
10. Brashear: 1.32
11. Oates: 1.28
12. Domi: 1.26
13. Cassels: 1.21

HITS PER GAME (I gave this a x2 weight, as much as assists. The benefits of hitting are MANY.)
1. Holik: 2.68
2. Brashear: 2.46
3. Domi: 1.38
4. Guerin: 1.28
5. Gelinas: 1.18
6. Rucinsky: 1.15
7. Cassels: .792
8. Young: .657
9. Lang: .452
10. Amonte: .317
11. Dahlen: .261
12. Selanne: .220
13. Oates: .038 (note: only 3 hits in 80 games!!)

GIVEAWAYS PER GAME (This stat, along with "takeaways" below, is a sketchy one. As far as I know there is no clear-cut explanation for what a "giveaway" or "takeaway" is, so it's dependent on the concept of the person keeping track of these stats, which could easily be different from person to person. Let's not sweat it too much for now, though.)
1. Dahlen: .348
2. Amonte: .366
3. Domi: .392
4. Gelinas: .458
5. Rucinsky: .560
6. Guerin: .615
7. Holik: .654
8. Lang: .677
9. Cassels: .698
10. Young: .716
11. Brashear: .716
12. Oates: 1.15
13. Selanne: 1.28

TAKEAWAYS PER GAME (See above.)
1. Holik: .802
2. Cassels: .698
3. Gelinas: .680
4. Oates: .663
5. Guerin: .654
6. Amonte: .476
7. Selanne: .476
8. Rucinsky: .453
9. Dahlen: .406
10. Brashear: .383
11. Lang: .339
12. Young: .239
13. Domi: .149

+10 FOR CENTERS (I'm giving every center an extra 10 points since they're more valuable than a winger, seeing as they take hundreds of face-offs every season, among other center specific duties.)
Holik, Cassels, Lang, Oates

- No surprise that Holik came out #1. And this is just stat-based, never mind his supposed intangibles.

- I didn't include Fleury since the Rangers will not be resigning him. I imagine he would score VERY highly based on his stats last season, but there's also the "distraction factor" with Fleury, and while most of these players have their quirks (especially Oates), they don't come anywhere near approaching Fleury's, um, quirks.

- I think Brashear or Domi would be nice pick-ups for the Rangers, regardless of their 11th and 13th place finishes. Remember, this is just stats-based, and as well, both players would be signed for the 3rd or 4th line where scoring is not expected.

- As if I needed to tell you, Adam Oates is ONLY good for assists and face-offs. Just about every other stat he's near the bottom and represents a poor all around value compared to the other centers on the list.

- Teemu Selanne seems to represent a HORRIBLE all around value. His amount of giveaways per game is flat out frightening. Even Donald Brashear ranks as an all around more valuable player, not to mention Gelinas and Rucinsky! But, of course, most teams looking to sign Teemu already know he's a one-dimensional player. I just didn't realize how much.

- Andrew Cassels seems like a good pick up for the team who loses out on the Holik sweepstakes.

- I previously thought Scott Young would be a pretty good pick-up. I take that back. Doesn't hit nearly as much as I thought he did and coughs up the puck a lot, it seems.

- Besides this list not mentioning intangible qualities, don't forget teams sign free agents based on needs. While Selanne ranks #12 of 13, if a team needs goals, they'd do much better with Selanne than they would with Rucinsky or Gelinas, despite their overall higher rankings.

- Basically, this exercise hasn't changed my opinion on the big 3 (Holik, Guerin, Amonte), it just shed some light on those other players like Selanne, Oates and Young (more negative opinions now) and Cassels, Dahlen and Lang (more positive opinions now).

Pete:

As you are the reason we spent the mega bucks on a new server and software just so you could have this little comment feature I am using it to inform you that the use of stats in a Hockeybird article cannot be done without the express written consent of the Hockey Rodent

----}-

Posted by: Bird on July 1, 2002 11:02 AM