Not Another Eastern Conference Preview

It’s must be September. How do I know, aside from the newspaper and the school buses and that thing with the numbers that hangs on my wall? Because every North American sports-media outlet, from Sports Illustrated to Hockey Digest, from ESPN to Hockeybird (in which Pete beat me to my only decent joke from the off-season—the Capitals replacing George McPhee with Reuben Kincaid and hiring Danny Bonaduce to coach their minor league affiliate), is featuring their preview and predications for the coming 2002-2003 NHL season. Whoopee!

These two-paragraph “What to Expect” blurbs have become such a basic staple in the world of sports that I almost can’t get juiced up for a coming season until I read about a dozen or so. Fortunately, no writer can resist rubbing the crystal ball and making a prediction or two. And why not? They’re very easy to write. Most sports journalists, notably those that cover hockey, are lazy lazy people. How many neural synapses do you need to fire in order to write something like, “The Islanders will struggle early on because they start the season without captain Mike Peca?” Not many, I reckon. And what’s more, these columns all follow the same standard format, almost to the point where you can just save a template and sub in new names every season. “The [Insert Team A] had a busy off-season, adding [Insert Free Agent Acquisitions], but you can’t buy on-ice chemistry and [Insert Name of Starting Goalie] will still need to have a big year for [Insert Team’s Hometown] to succeed.” Yawn-o-rama. These things have less spontaneity than virtual John Madden on EA football, circa 1995.

But if that explains why they’re written, the next question is: Why read them? I mean, they’re pretty baseless, and they don’t tell you anything you couldn’t learn from the “Transactions” page in the newspaper. Why read them? Because they’re fun. Fun in a “this moron thinks Robert Dome is the missing piece to Calgary’s playoff puzzle” kind of way. Fun in the sense that it’s always warms the heart to read things like, “Brian Sutter will be able to stabilize Theo Fleury and make sure the feisty winger’s off-ice problems don’t creep their way into his game.” Hilarious! Comedy gold! You can’t possibly take these things seriously, nor are you expected to. Everything is speculation; 99.99% of these predictions never come true. Sure, Detroit was favored last year and eventually won the Stanley Cup, but no one thought they’d have to beat Carolina to do it, or that lowly Montreal would be the team that kept both Eric Lindros and Jaromir Jagr out of the playoffs. These previews are about as accurate as drunken bar pool. The writers have enough skill and info to make things look interesting, but in the end it always comes down to who’s the most sober and/or least distracted by the hot blonde at the foosball table. After all, there is no real science behind these things.

Or is there?

As I prepared my boring token contribution to this required rite of hockey passage, it dawned on me that maybe a more methodological approach would yield some new insights into this otherwise unpredictable field. Maybe there is some hidden pattern lurking in the final standings of the NHL, or some proven formula that can be applied to determine the success/failure of a hockey team’s off-season. Always the scholar, I decided to go away from every natural gut-instinct I had and instead look at the data, search for repeating sequences, seek tendencies in the stats, crunch the occasional number. To quote the main character from the indie movie “Pi”:

“1) Mathematics is the language of nature. 2) Everything around us can be represented and understood through numbers. 3) If you graph these numbers, patterns emerge. Therefore: There are patterns everywhere in nature.”

Patterns in nature. Patterns in life. Patterns in the NHL. What a concept!

But before I begin, let’s lay some groundwork. First off, I’m not good with numbers. My math isn’t just fuzzy, it’s Todd Bertuzzi. I did my best to keep it together, but if you find a mistake or have a problem with the results, please refer all your complaints to my accountants over at Arthur Anderson. My computer is only human.

Second, I did some research, but not too much research. I don’t work for the Elias Sports Bureau. I tried to play math whiz, but I didn’t get carried away. For example, at some point I thought it would be useful to calculate the average success rate for first-year head coaches. That didn't happen. Feel free to figure it out on your own. I’m interested, but not too interested.

Third, and probably most important, is that the Heisenberg Uncertainty Principle (as it applies to the NHL) is in full effect. For those of you without a Masters Degree in sub-molecular theory, this means that it’s impossible to report a finding with complete accuracy because the observer himself affects the result. In other words, I’m a Rangers fan. It is impossible for me to impartially interpret the numbers because I myself am using my own biased perspective as the basis for the interpretation. I’m looking for evidence to justify my ideas, which is a fundamental no-no in scientific research. But do you think that Larry Wigge or Al Morganti would apply quantum mechanics to their preseason preview? I think not. This is a Between Periods exclusive. We go the extra step so you don’t have to.

But enough of my yammering and mumbo jumbo. What exactly did I find? Well, after analyzing some performance stats and noting some basic trends in the past few years (or at least since realignment in 1998), I hereby hypothesize that there are three basic ways to improve your point totals in the standings from the year before.

1. Better goaltending. (The key word is “better”, not just consistently good.)
   
2. Hire a new coach.
   
3. Add impact players without affecting the core unit (via free agency or trading spare parts).
   

No duh, right? You’d be surprised. Take, for example, the Rangers free agent spending spree of 1999. While most critics didn’t proclaim it to be an overwhelming success, almost every one felt that the moves would elevate New York back into the playoffs. But as we all know, despite the additions, the team actually dropped several points in the standings: 73 points overall, down from 77 the year before. So if the rules above apply (notably #3), how the heck did they manage to get worse? Well, fundamentally nothing really changed. Sure, the Rangers added Theo Fleury, Stephane Quintal, and a handful of D-level junk, but they also lost their top scorer (Wayne Gretzky) and best defensive defenseman (Jeff Beukeboom). The additions weren’t a cumulative improvement, they just cancelled out what was lost. And since every new player fell short of expectations, each in his own special way, the team dropped slightly off pace from the year before. See how it works?

Take another example. As impossible as it seemed, the team actually got worse in the year that followed 1999, even after hiring a new coaching staff and adding Mark Messier and Vladimir Malakhov. How was that possible? For one thing, team goaltending dropped significantly: Mike Richter, returning from injury, posted a save percentage of .893, down from his career average of .906, which (in theory, if Mike has his normal season) should not fluctuate, regardless of the performance of the defense in front of him. But even more significant is the “impact” of the free agents. Malakhov was lost for the season after week one; he had no impact on the team whatsoever. Messier, on the other hand, did contribute to the offense (Goals For jumped 32 points), but his well-known defensive liabilities also did nothing to improve the Goals Against, which skyrocketed an embarrassing 44 points. The net difference between the Goals For and Goals Against was -12, with Messier finishing the season at -25. While Messier’s on-ice season was a success—he basically did his job—these contributions ultimately did nothing (worse than nothing, in fact) to improve the team’s existing shortcomings. The non-impact impact of the free-agents, and the off-year by Mike Richter, were just enough of a setback to wash out any positive effects that new coach Ron Low might have had on the team. Whew!

Unfortunately, all these conclusions are quite easy to make in retrospect. Once again, I’m not smart or motivated enough to turn this into an exact science. I think my ultimate goal here is not really to prove anything, but maybe just to inspire some budding Good Will Hunting type to expand on these ideas. Plus it should be good for some laughs. So without further ado, onto the cliché.

Atlantic Conference

And I’m going balls out with this first one:

Say Hello to Our Little Friend

1. New York Rangers
Ranger fans are buzzing this summer for the first time in years, and with good reason. Granted, I’ve felt good about the last few off-seasons, but this off-season—I feel OUT-standing! Something’s happening on Broadway. The result will be better than expected. Of course, we are ruining the NHL (sniff sniff). Tough luck, Vancouver! Make way for the bad guy. Bad guy coming through.
Additions: New coaches, Bobby Holik, full season of Pavel Bure, Darius Kasparaitis.
Excisions: One 5’6, 180 pound tumor.
Trottier Effect: Six men made their full season head coaching debut last year. Five of six improved their team (anywhere from 6-44 points in the standings) and three of the five brought their team back into the playoffs. The lone exception was Bill Barber. The Flyers dropped 3 points in the standings but won the division; Barber was fired at the end of the season. Another positive: the two teams that showed the most dramatic improvement last season both hired first-year coaches in the off-season (Peter Laviolette and Bryan Sutter).
Be Afraid, NHL: Ranger fans, do you realize we have both Pavel Bure and Eric Lindros in their prime and on the same team!? Four years ago my Sega Genesis would have exploded if I tried to pull that off.
Player to Watch: Pavel Bure. I don’t think he’s going to break the Rangers single season scoring record, I think he’s going to shatter it. He feeds off of crowd energy, he loves to be the center of attention on the ice, and he’s been stuck in two remote NHL outposts for the last ten years. I guarantee Adam Graves’s 52 goal mark has been on his mind all summer. He’ll get 60, even if he has to shoot 500 times, and double any offense the team loses with the departure of Theo Fleury. On a sad note, I just cost myself any possible chance I had of nabbing him in a fantasy draft. Damn.
Player on Hotseat: Mike Richter. Two of the three criteria for improvement have been satisfied, but goaltending is an issue. If Mike’s numbers start slipping from his regular 2.60 GAA and .905 SV%, he’ll eat away at the point increase in the standings. And if his numbers crash dramatically, he’ll force Glen Sather to pick up the phone and call Byron Dafoe’s agent. For what it’s worth, my money’s on Mike doing the job. Of course, I don’t get paid for doing this. Did I have a point here?
Justifying $45 Million Dollars: Bobby Holik’s best season was 65 points and his career +/- is +137. Mario Lemieux’s career +/- is +158. Think about it.
The Price of Success: At some point this season Holik is going to earn a 3-5 game suspension for slew footing, a move I’ve only seen him get away with 15,698 times. I wonder where Colin Campbell and Gary Bettmann were the day JFK was killed.
Projected Final Point Total: 103

2. Philadelphia Flyers
Additions: Effectively traded Jiri Dopita for Michal Handzus; gave Ken Hitchcock the task of motivating underachievers like Pavel Brendl; allowed Luke Richardson to walk via free agency in favor of promoting youth from the minors. So, to sum up, they: 1) replaced a big defensive Czech center with a big defensive Czech center; 2) hired a fat guy to motivate a fat guy; and 3) replaced a guy named Luke with a guy named Bruno. Wow.
Subtractions: Nothing they can't live without.
Wish They Could Subtract: Jeremy Roenick's mouth.
Hitchcock Effect: In his first full season at Dallas, Hitchcock dramatically turned the Stars from a 66 point team to a 104 point team, adding 35 total goals while shaving off 82—quite a reversal. But in addition to the coach, the Stars were also able to trade some of the worst players in the history of the NHL (Shane Churla, Doug Zmolek, Kevin Hatcher) for Darryl Sydor and Sergei Zubov—two puck moving defenseman crucial to Hitchcock’s offensive system—and also coaxed some dramatic career-best numbers out of goalie Andy Moog. Under Hitchcock, Dallas continued to improve each year, especially after adding a sober and non-insane Eddie Belfour to the roster; they eventually settled into a system that averaged around 240 Goals For and 165 Goals Against per year. The Flyers, meanwhile, won their division last year with 97 points, 235 Goals For and 195 Goals Against. Statistically they had a great season, and aside from some brain-farts in March that ultimately derailed them in April, it’s tough to imagine where they’ll find the games and points to notably improve: they scored 56% of their points against teams that didn’t make the playoffs and were better than .500 against the rest. Can Hitchcock’s trap system really affect a team that’s already well-balanced in Goals For/Goals Against, and can the team even making the jump without any upgrade in the roster? That’s not to say that Hitchcock won’t make the Flyers any better, because he will—in the playoffs. That, and that alone, is why Hitchcock was hired.
Player to Watch: John LeClair. Not in a good way. Eleven hard years and nine backiotomies later, LeClair is now at that age when premier snipers slip from 50 goal scorers to 25-30 goal scorers. Which sadly means he’ll be playing for New York all that much sooner.
Best Under the Radar Move: Swapping Brian Boucher for Robert Esche. Without Boucher breathing down his neck, Roman Cechmanek can finally relax (which may or may not be a good thing for the Flyers). But at the very least it solves the on-going “we hate the good goalie but like the bad goalie” controversy that has haunted the Philly locker room for the past few seasons. Incidentally…
Guy Off the Hook: Cechmanek. Followed his 2.01 GAA/.921 SV% with a 2.05 GAA/.921 SV% season, and his numbers actually improved in the postseason. Note to Bobby Clarke and most of the NHL scribes: goaltending is not the problem here.
Rookie to Watch (in Name Only): Bruno St. Jacques, who I think played last season opposite Jenna Jameson in the Spice League. Geez. Loved his work in the movie "5 Minutes for Spearing."
Dumbest Off-Season Quote: I’ve read this at least five times: “Kim Johnsson should build on his numbers and improve the power play as the offensive quarterback the Flyers desperately need.” After the Olympic Break, Johnsson fulfilled every Ranger prophecy by posting 3 points and a -3 in the final 25 games. In contrast, Dale Purinton had two points and was +5 during the same stretch. Are these people even watching the games? I’m not a hockey writer but I play one every fall.
Pavel Brendl’s Goals Scored/Donuts Consumed Percentage: .076.
Projected Final Point Total: 100

3. New Jersey Devils
Additions: New coaches, Jeff Friesen, Oleg Tverdovsky.
Subtractions: Bobby Holik, Petr Sykora.
Burns Effect: Pat Burns has the distinction of being one the few coaches in the history of hockey that has succeeded in immediately improving all three teams that he has coached, winning the Jack Adams Award all three times. He's handled different teams with different levels of talent: a young squad in Boston, a team of journeyman in Toronto, an elite powerhouse in Montreal. He stresses discipline and fundamentals, with all his teams showing improved offense and defense. Last season, the Devils led the Eastern Conference in lowest Goals Against, 8 goals lower than the season before when they won the division with 111 points, but fell below the conference average in Goals For (90 goals less than the year before). Burns's primary task will clearly be to rejuvinate the sputtering offense.
Personnel Problems: In the off-season of 2001 the Devils allowed sniper Alexander Mogilny to leave via free-agency and never replaced his offensive contributions; scoring in turn dropped 30%. This off-season they lost Bobby Holik and Petr Sykora and added Friesen and Tverdovsky. Friesen's offense should replace Sykora, and Tverdovsky improves the power play. The major loss is Holik, who added both offense and defense. A fair expectation is that Goals For and Against increase, slightly approaching each other, which makes it difficult for the team to show anything but a mild improvement. Unless, of course, they replace the offense lost two years ago with Mogilny's departure.
Interesting Note: The Devils were prepared to spend $8.5 million a year to keep Holik, but were, of course, turned down (Ha Ha, in Nelson Muntz voice). But that commitment to increase the budget still exists, so they have a great deal of "cap room" to add a significant but expensive player should such a commodity become available on the market. So when/if a high-priced team falls well short of expectations (i.e., St. Louis Blues) and decides to unload some contracts and retool for next season (i.e., Keith Tkachuk), there is a strong chance that the Devils will have the will and resources to pull off such a deal. In other words, the first big name player on the market will be a Devil. You heard it here first.
Fantasy Antichrists: Jeff Friesen and Scott Niedermeyer. Every season I somehow end up drafting these guys and every season they perform just bad enough to crush my team but just well enough that I can’t waive them. If you're in my fantasy league and I draft any of these guys this season, that “Whoosh” sound you’ll hear will be me, lighting myself on fire.
Check Your Oil, Sir?: Joe Nieuwendyk has only one season in the league in which he played 80 games or more. That was last season, his 16th in the NHL. Interesting, I thought.
Rangers vs Devils Season Series: 3-1-1, Rangers.
Projected Final Point Total: 96

And now things get interesting and require some explanation. Since realignment in 1998, no NHL team has sent an entire division into the playoffs, and only three times has a division sent four of five (Northeast Division twice, Pacific once). In 1999, the Dallas Stars trounced the Western Conference and won their division by 24 points; that’s not going to happen this season in the Atlantic. In the other two cases, the difference between the first place team and the last place team was considerably low (28 points and 19 points), indicative of a great degree of parity within the division. This kind of parity could occur this season in the Atlantic, and is all the more possible because the other two divisions are considerably weaker. Remember, there is only so many points available in the league; one team’s loss is another team’s gain. 86.5 points is the average total needed to make the playoffs.

4. New York Islanders
Additions: Big fat nothing. Jason Weimer and Aaron Asham don’t count.
Subtractions: OK, Mrzrzcsz Czrwzkwzky was stealing money from Charles Wang and Co., but couldn’t Milbury have gotten more for the Polish Flash than a career AHLer. Was Mad Mike’s cell phone experiencing static that day? Or was it that fifth round pick—the NHL’s answer to undercoating—that sealed the deal?
Peca Factor: Knee-jerk reaction (no pun intended) says that the Islanders will struggle out of the gate with Mike Peca sidelined until at least early December. But yet it didn’t effect the Sabres in 2000 when Peca skipped the season with a contract dispute; in fact, the Sabres actually improved and put up their best season record since the start of the Peca Era. However, Buffalo also had Dominik Hasek return from injury (see Rule #1 above).
Cause For Concern: Isles gave up the most goals of any team that made the playoffs last season, and did nothing in the off-season to address this deficiency. Osgood put up his career average numbers and can't realistically be expected to improve his game.
Cause for Hope: Like the Devils, the Isles finished under budget, which means they'll have the ways and means to deal for a defenseman when the market opens up.
The M & M Show: Don’t underestimate Mike Milbury’s ability to pull off a crazy-ass trade and dump his prospects again—he still has the bluest blue chip in Rick DiPietro—to jump-start a struggling franchise. Would St. Louis listen to offers for Doug Weight, Tkachuk, Pavol Demitra, or Al MacInnis? Would LA listen to offers for Zigmund Palffy if Anaheim makes a leap and turns them into a last place team? Heck, would Brian Burke ship out Ed Jovanovski or (gasp!) Todd Bertuzzi if the price were right? All things worth following through the course of the season.
Amount of Goals Brad Isbister Will Score: 23
Amount of Goals Raffi Torres Will Score: 8
Amount of Goals Trent Hunter Will Score: 13
Projected Final Point Total: 87 (assuming Milbury makes a big deal, thus squeezing them into the playoffs by the skin of Alexei Yashin's teeth)

What Difference Will He Make?

5. Pittsburgh Penguins
Additions: "New" coaches, “healthy” Mario Lemieux, "healthy" Martin Straka, "healthy" Alexei Kovalev.
Subtractions: Robert Lang
Kehoe Effect: It wouldn't exactly be fair not to extended the first-year coaching effect to Rick Kehoe, since technically this is his first full year with the squad. So assume that coach Rick's presence alone improves the squad from their 69 points last season. But not much.
Lemieux Effect: The Penguins record with Mario Lemieux in the line-up last season was a respectable 10-9-4. Extrapolated over the course of a season, that’s 36-32-14, 86 points, not enough to make the playoffs. Factor in the requisite 10 games that Mario will miss during the year and the record is 34-32-16, 84 points, still not enough to make the playoffs. On paper, his impact alone does not carry his current team into the postseason. Historically, the Penguins missed the playoffs in 6 of Lemieux’s first 7 seasons, back when he was young and had limited injuries. So is a line-up of guys like Mike Bullard, Moe Mantha, Doug Bodger, and Gilles Meloche better than one of Alex Kovalev, Randy Robitaille, Janne Laukkanen, and Johan Hedberg? Don’t answer all at once.
Deju Vu All Over Again: Am I the only one that gets all disoriented whenever the AP reports an injury to Martin Straka? Did he piss off a Haitian priestess or something? Injured by a Nautilus machine--this is exactly why I don't go to the gym. He didn't play last season either, so missing him shouldn't affect the standings in any way.
Show Me the Ruples!: After losing Robert Lang to free agency, a decent two-way forward, the team now needs to sign Alexei Kovalev in order to remain competitive. The offense lost 83 goals from the previous season when they put up 96 points. Even with Lemieux and Straka at full health, without Kovalev the Pens cannot expect to even come close to to the 281 goals they scored in 2000-2001. On an unrelated topic, that will be the last time I break out a cheesy "Show Me the Ruples" joke in a column. That's a Between Periods promise.
Disappointing Young Forward Asked to Step Up by Lemieux: Milan Kraft passes the torch he inherited from Alexei Morozov to Kris Beech. Touching ceremony follows.
Only Guy to Play in All 82 Games Last Season: Dan LaCouture. Wow.
Amazing Mario Lemieux Fact: Posted 282 points, including 133 goals, in 70 games during his final season in major juniors. Nearest regular NHLer to this total: Sergio Momesso, 130 points. Luc Robitaille’s point total from that year: 85.
WhoDat Player That Experiences Sudden Point Surge After Being Placed on Lemiuex’s Line: Tom Kostopoulos
Over/Under on Lemieux’s Games Played: 66
Projected Final Point Total: 77

Next week--Rest of the Eastern Conference, Western Conference

Recent Articles Road Trip Pics

Web Hockeybird.com