Not Another Eastern Conference Preview, The Sequel

Last week I began my Eastern Conference preview and predictions with a look at the Atlantic Division, and I promised that we’d apply the same mathematical system to the Northeast and Southeast Divisions. But it turns out that everyone not in the Atlantic Division are boring wastes of time. I spent almost an hour working through stats of the Ottawa Senators before coming to the conclusion that if I need calculus to explain why Patrick Lalime is a crappy goalie, then I might as well hang up my skates. So I’m not going to do that anymore.

Instead I’ll offer my projections, still based on the same principles as last week, only I’ll express my answers as if I were seven deep into a 12-pack beer buzz. You’ll get the idea. Who knows? Maybe I’m drunk right now.

Northeast Division

Eric Doesn't Like Zdeno One Bit

1. Ottawa Senators
Overall Vibe: Even though they seem to play a boring, deliberate system of hockey, the Sens actually finished second in Goals For in the Eastern Conference. They make a minor improvement to their roster by trimming Shawn McEachern and freeing a roster spot for highly-touted Jason Spezza. (Why does everyone always have to be “highly” touted. Can’t someone just be touted?) Streaky goaltending may be a pressing problem if they intend to build on their success in last season’s playoffs. Zdeno Chara gets my vote for the league’s most underrated player: his size and strength make him impossible to play against (+30 last season), he adds plenty of grit (150+ PIMs), and improved mobility helped him tack on 10 goals (Lidstrom had 9). And he still only finished 14th in voting for the Norris Trophy last season. Where's the justice?
I Can’t Believe: Their General Manager is Grandpa John Muckler, a man so old and confused that he could not remember the names of his players back when he coached the Rangers. It wouldn’t surprise me if one afternoon Roger Neilson finds the GM wandering around the Corel Centre in his underware and mumbling something about a spaceship ride he’s supposed to take with Wilford Brimley, only to find out later that Muck just traded Marian Hossa for Michal Grosek. Instead of signing bonuses, I wonder if the Senators get birthday cards with illegible checks made out for $15 dollars.
Watch-ability Index: -10. You’d have to pay me in hookers to get me to sit through an entire Senators game. American hookers.
Burning Question: Where does Chris Phillips rank on the Ottawa first-overall pick Bust-o-Meter? Would you say he’s below Bryan Berard but ahead of Alexandre Daigle?
Overrated Strategy: Boring-ass trap.
Underrated Strategy: Distracting opponents with Jacques Martin’s huge ears.
Projected Point Total: 99

2. Le Canadiens de Montréal
Overall Vibe: Only team to have a higher Goals Against than Goals For and still make the playoffs last season. Added Mrzrszrz Czrczrwkzy and Randy McKay in the off-season, which gives them a very serious scoring threat in games that have already been decided. Saku Koivu is finally healthy and his cancer is in full remission, which is good news for fans of the Old Testament who surely wait with baited breath to see what affliction God will reign down upon him next. Resigning Richard Zednik is crucial, as is keeping Donald Audette in form, and a strong showing from blah-dee blah blah—who cares? They have Jose Theodore. He’ll keep them competitive in every game.
I Can’t Believe: This team beat the conference leaders in the playoffs when their best forward is Yanic Perreault. Almost as bad as the Sabres going deep in the playoffs when their top scorer was Derek Plante.
Watch-ability Index: 2 (as long as it’s in English). La légende a pris naissance en 1924 quand le propriétaire du Madison Square Garden (New York) Tex Rickard s'était fait dire que le fameux “H” représentait les francophones du Québec qu'on désignait alors comme les Habitants. Le surnom tient depuis. (See what I mean.)
Burning Question: Should I be rooting for Doug Gilmour? Because I really don’t want to.
Overrated Strategy: Solid team play led by inspirational goaltending.
Underrated Strategy: Allowing Theodore to get barraged until the other team gets tired and loses interest.
Projected Point Total: 91

3. Toronto Maple Leafs
Overall Vibe: Eddie Belfour, Darcy Tucker, Mats Sundin, Alex Mogilny, and a slimmed-down Pat Quinn—all in the same locker room? This team is a lesbian and a sassy black girl away from being Real World: Toronto. Downgrading at the goalie spot should cost them, and putting huge bulls-eyes on their jerseys as the league’s goon squad won’t help either. Team leader Gary Roberts starts the season on the IR, which won’t make much difference because he hibernates during the winter anyway. Tack on about 20 to their Goals Against and this team looks remarkably similar to the Islanders, who’ll probably be their top competition for the last playoff spot.
I Can’t Believe: They didn’t land Theo Fleury. This needed to happen on so many levels. The NHL must have some cryptic rule about the balance of insanity in both conferences.
Watch-ability Index: 8. You don’t like them and they don’t like you. Every game has the potential to disintegrate into some weird combination of the 1998 Olympics, an episode of OZ, and the Jerry Springer Show. I’m expecting Mats Sundin to come out and do a strip-tease one night.
Burning Question: Who will Pat Quinn give the starting nod to when faced with a drunken Eddie Belfour or a sober Trevor Kidd? My money’s on the Eagle.
Overrated Strategy: Blaming the Rangers when they don’t make the playoffs.
Underrated Strategy: Blaming God for all the suffering in the world.
Projected Point Total: 85

4. Buffalo Sabres
Overall Vibe: Isn’t it always reassuring to show up for work one day and watch your boss get taken away in hand-cuffs? Yikes. I can’t imagine any situation in which this team succeeds in the coming season. No improvement to the roster (though getting Jochen Hecht was a decent move), the entire franchise in a complete state of limbo, owners in the pokey—sounds like the Zhitnik is hitting the fan (and by “fan” I mean…well, nevermind). Remember when the only problem with being on the Buffalo Sabres was that you had to play in the city of Buffalo? I just hope the new ownership group brings back the powder blue jersey with the bright yellow stripes.
I Can’t Believe: Jay McKee doesn’t at least get some token votes for the Norris Trophy every year. Doesn’t defense entail keeping the other team from scoring? Sergei Gonchar finished the season at –1 and was fourth in voting for the Norris. If you’re on the ice for more goals against than for, doesn’t that make you a terrible defenseman? Doesn’t it!? No, I will not keep my voice down. The people need to know about these things.
Watch-ability Index: 4. Just a regular “defense first” team that gets an extra point for having Vaclav Varada. Incidentally, my favorite part of Varada’s game is that he’s always repents for the things he does. “Me sorry me try to horribly cripple opponent on ice. Me get carried away in spirit of competition. Me never let it happen again.” Man do I miss the days when this team had Dominik Hasek.
Burning Question: Does anyone else sense the irony that Gary Bettmann, a man who’s done so much to screw the Buffalo Sabres in the past five years, is now running the team? If they trade Chris Gratton to Anaheim for free passes to Epcot Center, you know the fix is in.
Overrated Strategy: Relying on streaky offense of Miroslav Satan to carry team.
Underrated Strategy: Selling collective team soul and coaxing actual Satan out of retirement.
Projected Point Total: 78

5. Boston Bruins
Overall Vibe: Subtract starting goalie, best goal scorer, best defensemen—what do you get? [Whistling sound of bomb being dropped, explosion.] This team is completely f’ed up. They won the conference last year, but rather than build on things and maybe add a few ingredients to take them to the next level, they gut the squad of its two best players, do nothing to replace them, and in the process piss everyone else off. It’s one thing to be pleasantly surprised by the production of Glen Murray and Sean O’Donnell, and another to rely on that production to win games. And their coach, Robbie Ftorek, isn’t quite known as a guy that can hold things together; he was actually fired by his former team when they were in first place, battling for the Stanley Cup. How bad is this team? They added Bryan Berard to improve the defense. That’s awful.
I Can’t Believe: That by not making any positive moves in the off-season, essentially what Boston did was tell guys like Brian Rolston, Sergei Samsonov, Murray and O’Donnell that they were underachieving last year. And then they trade for a goalie before the free-agency period even begins? And if they weren’t going to bother tending an offer to Bill Guerin, why didn’t they trade him at the end of last season, or at least send his rights some place for a high draft pick? Holy Bucyk! My head hurts. I think I’ll go lie down.
Watch-ability Index: 5. By mid-season Joe Thorton and Martin Lapointe are going to be so pissed off they’ll be swinging their sticks at anything that moves.
Burning Question: (Serious question alert) Can Steve Shields replace Byron Dafoe? I don’t know. Dafoe was better than he’ll get credit for, but Shields isn’t much of a downgrade if he can stay healthy. Probably a good move if you take the money you save and reinvest it in the club. Of course, Boston decided to pocket most of that money and start the season way under budget. Did I have a point here?
Overrated Strategy: Clogging ice with wide bodies, aggressive forecheck.
Underrated Strategy: Blame Yankees.
Projected Point Total: 70

Southeast Division

1. Washington Capitals
Overall Vibe: C’mon get happy! Caps hire a new coach (Bruce Cassidy, whoever he is), vow to open up the offense a little, and basically make sure that 90% of the play runs through Jaromir Jagr. They also add unappreciated Robert Lang, who when you get right down to it, really isn’t that good. Still, they followed my formula for success (hire new coach, add new players without affecting the core) and have a decent goalie, and they probably would have caught Carolina last season if Jagr wasn’t hurt through the first half. Getting back healthy players like Steve Konowalchuk (who looks absolutely worship-the-devil, hearing-voices-in-his-head psychotic in his glamour shot over at espn.com) and Jeff Halpern probably help. I think they’ll have a field day in this division.
I Can’t Believe: Jaromir Jagr found a way to get another coach fired. How can a guy that talented also double as the Angel of Death? Personally I’d expect better from someone with a degree in Hotel Management.
Watch-ability Index: 0. They’ve had a flat-line offense in the past five seasons, led by the greatest Ranger killer of the past ten years, Petr Bondra. Now I just watch to see if someone will flatten Jagr.
Burning Question: How freaking old are Sylvain Cote and Calle Johansson? Is it just me of have these guys been in the league since the late 70s? Didn’t they used to play with Mike Gartner and Denis Maruk and Bengt Gustafsson? I actually looked it up and they’re both in their mid-30s. Very strange. As an FHL tip, without fail these two are always the best defensemen available on the fantasy waiver wire. I think it’s some obscure rule that one of them has to play on your team for at least two weeks while Rob Blake or Roman Hamrlik nurse a knee injury.
Overrated Strategy: Give Jagr the puck and head to open ice.
Underrated Strategy: Give Jagr the puck and head to Bud Ice. He’s not going to pass it, so it doesn’t matter if you’re drunk or sober.
Projected Point Total: 105

2. Carolina Hurricanes
Overall Vibe: Yee haw. Eastern Conference Champs get a chance to prove that their 2002 run through the playoffs wasn’t a fluke. No major additions, no major losses. Ron Francis is another year older, Jeff O’Neill is a rising star, Erik Cole is an emerging power forward and guys like Bates Battaglia, Rod Brind’Amor and Bret Hedican all do their jobs. Sure, they won’t catch anyone off guard anymore, but they’ll be back to the playoffs. Besides, it’s impossible to root against Arturs Irbe. Try it. It can’t be done. He always gets to you in the end. He’s like the NHL version of Julia Roberts.
I Can’t Believe: That suddenly Paul Maurice, a guy who was literally one loss away from being fired about a dozen times, is now getting sudden press as a underrated coach. That’s not to say that he isn’t a good coach (he is), but that most hockey writers are juts plum dumb hypocrites. Between Periods would never bow down to that kind of crap. That’s a promise. By the way, congrats to the Rangers for resigning Mark Messier. Glad to have you back, Moose! You da man!
Watch-ability Index: 6. Mmmmmmmmmm… Cheerleaders…
Burning Question: Will Carolina fans return if the team struggles, or will the local population continue to set mankind back thousands of years by watching fast cars go around in a circle instead of highly skilled world-class athletes playing a game of speed and precision? (On an unrelated topic, I had my southern relatives up last weekend and while flipping through the television channels on Saturday night, my uncle finally found what he was looking for and made the excited comment, “Good, the race is on.” You know you’re from the South when it becomes the race, as opposed to just a race. I'll never understand NASCAR.)
Overrated Strategy: Team play, discipline, good coaching, timely goals.
Underrated Strategy: Juicing up the crowd by having Mark Martin do ice donuts on the zamboni.
Projected Point Total: 92

Khabibulin!

3. Tampa Bay Khabibulins
Overall Vibe: Nikolai Khabibulin—might as well get that out of the way since that’s where the Bolts begin and end. And as impressive as Khabibulin’s final stats were, what’s even more impressive is that he managed to keep his GAA at a respectable 2.36 despite having one of the most inexperienced and often hurt defensive units in the league. Tampa added a warm body in Ruslan Fedotenko to go along with other warm bodies like Vinny Prospal, Freddy Modin, and the ageless Dave Andreychuk; they also have the underrated Brad Richards, the anti-Lecavalier. Not much improvement in the roster, a goalie that does it all already, and a coach that, let’s face it, is in way over his head--it's difficult to see the Bolts leaping into the playoff picture this season. I’d like to say they have a shot if they stay healthy, but since Brian Holzinger broke his leg screwing around one day before camp was set to start, I just can’t see that happening. Some locker rooms are just cursed. Nikolai Khabibulin.
I Can’t Believe: The Ice Palace, one of the few decent venue names in the NHL, is now officially known as The St. Pete Times Forum. Bad enough they moved out of the Thunderdome a few years ago, now they’ve tacked on some corporate logo to one of the finest hockey facilities in the US. Aren’t there any rich crazy people in Tampa that feel it’s their civic duty to protect the legacy and history of such a fine arena? Think of all that’s been accomplished under that roof, all the tradition. Brian Bradley must be spinning in his grave.
Watch-ability Index: 4. Probably the only team in the league that’s more exciting on defense than on offense.
Burning Question: What’s the deal with Vinny Lecavalier? Fault Tampa for putting too much faith in a teenager and not surrounding him with some vets to keep him grounded, but at some point the prima donna act has to stop. The game’s next great playmaker had 17 assists last season—that’s awful. I think this is a make or break season for the NHL’s answer to J Lo. Seems like he’s a DWI and a posse away from an NBA contract.
Overrated Strategy: Allow Khabibulin to see and face first shot, concentrate on clearing rebounds.
Underrated Strategy: Allow first, second, third, fourth, and fifth shots; counter when frustrated team breaks stick over back of net.
Projected Point Total: 76

4. Florida Panthers
Overall Vibe: Mike Keenan finally gets the chance to start a young squad from the ground up and ultimately ridicule, taunt, and otherwise destroy the confidence of the some of the league’s brightest upcoming stars. His roster is a piece of crap, but he does have a future foundation in all the positions (Roberto Luongo, Stephen Weiss, and Igor Ulanov… I mean, Jay Bouwmeester). They can’t possibly make the playoffs—no matter how well Luongo plays, they still can’t score—but Mike Keenan should make things interesting to watch. He’ll make the kids better in the long run, even if he does suck all the joy out of the game for them.
I Can’t Believe: Mike Keenan, franchise locust, not only got another head coaching job but also a five-year extension to boot. Like most Rangers fans I have a soft spot in my heart for Iron Mike, even though he’s a lying slippery scumbag, but I’m still somewhat shocked at the amount of chances he gets around the league. It seems at this point that he’s not so much a good coach anymore, but used more as a threat or punishment towards underachieving squads. Sort of like the NHL boogyman. Wouldn’t it be great if after a loss some GM would pick up a phone in the locker room and pretend to call Keenan, just like my parents used to phone Santa Claus when I was acting up around Christmas time? “Hi Mike? It’s Bryan Murray. Yeah, we lost again. I have an entire team here of very naughty boys. When can you start? Great. Well if I don't see some better behavior from certain young men around here, I'll have to call again and make it official.” Say what you want, the NHL is way more interesting with Mike Keenan than without.
Watch-ability Index: 6. Good goalie, young talent worth following, Peter Worrell, getting to see guys named Sandis and Ollie put through the Mike Keenan Deathcamp Experience—what’s not to like?
Burning Question: Who’ll be the first to suffer the wrath of Keenan? Step right up, Viktor Kozlov!
Overrated Strategy: Press in offensive zone, take chances, over-rely on goaltending to swing each game.
Underrated Strategy: Weasel out of contract, demand trade to contender.
Projected Point Total: 64

5. Atlanta Thrashers
Overall Vibe: Hey, this is a young squad. Hey, these kids are fun to watch, aren’t they? Hey, it gets pretty electric out there every time Ilya Kovalchuk touches the puck, and that Dany Heatley is going to make one great captain someday. Am I right? Yup, future sure does look bright. Boy howdy. Hey, we’re in last place again! Hey, this team is two good forwards surrounded by role players, beer leaguers, and assorted dipshits! Hey, lottery pick, here we come!
I Can’t Believe: This team won’t be ready to compete until right around the time the league shuts down in 2004. I mean, I can believe it, but I just can’t accept it. OK, maybe I can accept it.
Watch-ability Index: 4. Kovalchuk and Heatley are fun, but the rest of the roster? Yikes. I give them credit for making some moves and working towards the future, but any team that tremendously improves their defense by adding Uwe Krupp and Richard Smehlik is going to be tough to watch for 2+ hours.
Burning Question: Did you know that the brown thrasher, or brown thrush, is the official state bird of Georgia? I didn’t.
Overrated Strategy: Get Kovalchuk and Heatley the puck, watch the excitement begin.
Underrated Strategy: Die slow, cringing, agonizing death while Kovalchuk and Heatley regain breath between shifts on the bench.
Projected Point Total: 60

Next week, maybe a Western Conference Preview. Maybe not. Enjoy training camp. Preseason games are just around the corner!

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