Fact or Fiction: Holik’s Role is Key to Next Trade

Few GM’s in the league have a track record without blemishes, and so is the case with Glen Sather here in New York.

The Dave Karpa signing is a hemorrhoid the size of Roseanne Barr. Igor Ulanov and Zdeno Ciger brought more comedy to New York than Sam Kinison. And the trade of Malhotra/Heisten for Rucinsky/Lyashenko is as useless as Teddy Green behind the bench.

But, in almost biblical fashion, Ulanov beget Bure, Ciger beget Barnaby, and a host of new faces brought optimism to New York’s hockey scene.

The End Result: Depth

The big difference between Neil Smith and Glen Sather is not the total payroll. Instead, it’s how that payroll is spent.

Neil Smith would occupy every roster spot with an overpaid, underachieving, untradeable veteran, such as Luc Robitaille, Kevin Stevens, Bruce Driver, John MacLean, etc.

Glen Sather has spent half of his $75 million payroll on four elite players: Eric Lindros, Pavel Bure, Bobby Holik and Brian Leetch. Much of the remaining roster is filled with players with trade value.

So What’s Our Current Focus?

Sather is likely focused on balanced scoring from the team’s second line.

Consider this: Bure-Lindros-Nedved have scored 8 of the forward’s 14 goals. And, it’s obvious that lines 2-4 strike little fear in the hearts of opposing defenders.

This does not change the defensive focus, but if a second scoring line can be created, then it’s easier to develop a dedicated checking line, as exhibited against Toronto with Holik-Murray-Samuelsson.

What’s the Dilemma?

Messier and Holik. More specifically, Messier’s on-ice incompetence and Holik’s ability to play both offense and defense.

Messier can’t be counted on to play a consistent scoring role, nor can he handle the responsibility of challenging defensive assignments. This means that Holik is left picking up the slack on a game-to-game basis.

Think this is fluff? Consider this:

In the MSG pre-game report during the first few games of the season, Messier was listed as the second line center with Bobby Holik as the third line center. In recent games, Holik’s name has moved up to the second line center position. For a PR-obsessed machine like MSG, that is significant.

This makes Holik’s refreshing candor to the media even more logical. Is he a checking center with Samuelsson and Murray, as he was against Toronto? Or is he an offensive player, with Nedved and Dvorak, as he was against Nashville?

The answer to this question will dictate Sather’s next move.

If Sather Determines Holik is a Scoring Center…

Then look for a relatively radical shakeup of the forward lines.

Holik would need a winger more suited to his style of play – a power forward like Ryan Smyth. For while one speedster on Holik’s wing is effective, two are not.

A checking center would also be needed to shadow opponent’s top lines, and keeping with the Oilers theme, someone like Todd Marchant would fit the bill.

But Sather Will Likely Stick with Holik as a Defensive Center…

He paid Holik $9 million to shut down top centers, especially in the playoffs. So the question becomes what to do with Petr Nedved? Is he able to shoulder the burden of providing consistent offense at center?

Based on Trottier’s praise so far, it seems that Nedved may be the best candidate. A simple strategy would then be to rescue Jan Hlavac out of Crawford’s doghouse in Vancouver to reunite the Czech line.

But that seems unlikely, because it would be too much finesse on the front six.

Could Rucinsky be brought back? Yes, but it would overwhelm an already crowded set of forwards. Plus, he had no chemistry with Petr Nedved last season, and getting Pavel Bure on the scoresheet doesn’t exactly seem to be a problem.

So What Sather Will Be Looking For…

A physical, scoring winger for Petr Nedved, using Radek Dvorak and Tomas Kloucek as potential bait. Ryan Smyth is FOF’s gut feeling, but it’s doubtful anything will happen for the next couple of weeks, and a lot can happen between now and then…

-Gabe

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