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Samsonov, Poti and the NHL Stock Market
Sunday - August 10, 2003

Following hockey transactions nowadays is about as tedious
as researching the stock market.

When a GM says trade, the transaction more resembles those
from Wall Street than NHL offices.

In order for a lowly hockeybird columnist to stay on top of
all this, you first study a team's salaries, then you double
check to make certain that there are no significant bonus
structures above base year deals (like that of Lindros),
and then you check in on ownership's financial goals.

Got that?

Then you're ahead of me.

An example: the Blues...

They have goalie Chris Osgood signed this summer at a
discount price of $3 million. More, they also have promising
young(ish) goaltender Brent Johnson in the fold, as well.

So the rumors of Cujo being shipped there are bogus, right?

Not so fast. The Blues are interested in dumping one of
their high-priced forwards, namely Doug Weight, so might
be willing to accept Cujo's $8 million.

Which would then mean they'd need to find a taker for
Osgood's $3 million (since Johnson makes 'only' $1 million)

The Bruins would make a potential partner, but if they don't
bite, the Blues may be on the hook for Osgood's $3 million.

Which brings us to the Bruins...

Notoriously tight-fisted, the Bruins are ready to walk away
from Berard's $2.5 million award because it is $500K above
their offer of $2 million per season.

So with $500K a walking-away figure, there must be a concern
in contract negotiations between the club and Sergei Samsonov -
where the latter's agent asked for Thornton's contract to be
used as a 'talking point' according to the Boston Globe.

If Samsonov prices himself out of the market, the Rangers figure
to be a potential trade partner with Bure's imminent retirement.

Which brings us to the Rangers...

With Leetch and de Vries signed and Tjutin a promising prospect,
Tom Poti has quickly become a tradeable commodity, and being a
Boston native, his name in Bruin rumors was inevitable.

A deal with Poti and Samsonov as the primary components is not
a far-fetched idea.

And it could easily be expanded. Today's rumor from Boston is
Samsonov and Gill for Poti and Dunham.

Of course, this would mean that Sather was also ready to pick up
Cujo and his $8 million salary.

Which brings us to Detroit...

They were waiting for Hasek's roller hockey legal woes to be cleared
up, which it now has been, so Cujo can now be safely traded.

Except Cujo has a no-trade clause and has accepted only a few teams
to rescind it, the Rangers being one of them - the others reportedly
are Vancouver (chuckle), the Blues (see above), and the Islanders.

This has led to rampant speculation that Cujo would be put on waivers,
but it's unlikely that Detroit would do that without having another
deal in place since Colorado would pick up Cujo to replace Roy.

And, suffice it to say, there isn't another team willing to pick up
Cujo's salary without getting something in return in either players
of financial relief.

(Note: the Quintal-Grosek deal was not 'legal,' and Cujo will no doubt
challenge such a move and win)

Which brings us to ...

Who knows?

But my prediction? The Poti-Samsonov rumor makes the most sense to me.

Boston has lost most of its free agents who price themselves out of
Beantown, and Samsonov is heading down that road.

Poti has quickly become expendable, and has more trade value than
almost anyone else on the team.

If Berard isn't resigned and Boynton not playing this season after a
car accident, the Bruins would need an offensive blueliner.

There are so many other pieces to where this could expand to - if
Sather can get Cujo at his price, then Dunham is expendable and could
sweeten the deal to include Rolston or Gill.

But I'd watch Poti and Samsonov as the two most likely to be moved.

This Week's Favorite Dumb Media Rumor

My favorite of the week came from Gord Miller, who claims a three-way
deal where Cujo goes to NY, Dunham to Boston, and Lapointe to Detroit, and
explains the Rangers side of the deal as follows:

"The Rangers are better equipped to take on all of Joseph's salary."

Thanks Gord - Dunham's got better stats than Cujo, but we'll pay Cujo
$5 million more (the price of Samsonov, by the way) because we "can."

Honorable Mention for This Week's Favorite Dumb Media Rumor

Theodore/Brisebois for Tanguay/Roy

Roy has filed his retirement papers. All teams would need to accept
his reinstatement, which as has much chance of happening as Sherry Ross
to break a news story.


-Gabe

Posted by Gabe at August 10, 2003 11:32 AM
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