Hockeybird.com: Raleigh Welcomes Future NHLers

Greetings again, hockey fans, and welcome to the 2004 NHL draft in Raleigh, North Carolina.

My original plan was to do another running diary following the 2004 draft and insert my own particular brand of yuk-yuks and Mike Milbury jokes along the way. Only that didn’t happen. I had to take my dog to the vet – she’s fine, thanks for asking – and then I got a phone call and then I had a breakfast-related crisis (burned bacon) and then, before I knew it, the Rangers had already drafted famed Spanish swordsman Inigo Montoya. Plans ... open window ... summer breeze ... see ya.

And so the draft proceeded without me — ho hum. Meanwhile, in an abandoned warehouse somewhere on the outskirts of Rye, New York, thousands of Rangers fans were sharpening knives, cleaning handguns, strapping C-4 to their chests, and saying silent prayers to Eddie Giocomin before they headed out on a take-no-prisoners suicide mission toward MSG.

The NHL draft, beyond the two or three sure things that everyone agrees on, is an outright crapshoot when it comes to predicting the future of any given player. Can’t-miss studs can turn to miserable busts in a matter of weeks, and every GM in the league, even the ones not named Milbury, have taken their roll of the dice and had two empty black eyes staring back at them. Check any draft list from the past 20 years and you’ll find roughly 10–20% of the players chosen in the first round never even make the NHL at all, let alone become anything more than serviceable utility players. It's powerball, dude. Assuming you don’t have one of the top five picks, in any given draft and in any given round, if you draft a player that will stick around the league for about 10 years, you’ve done well. And if you manage to draft a future all-star, you’ve won the friggin' lottery. Think about it. Most teams have about twenty "regular" players on their roster in any season, yet they draft seven to twelve new players every single year. That's a lot of chum when you consider that most "regular" players usually stay in the league for 10-15 years.

Part of it is the star bias in the league and the big-eyed optimism that everyone naturally brings to a new situation. I mean, no one would have the same enthusiasm for these kids if they were described as "a poor man's Ruslan Salei" or "the next Dan Lacouture" — even though that's exactly what most of these players become. Not that there's anything wrong with that.

So with that in mind, I think it's kind of silly to douse yourself in kerosene because your team drafted Rostislav Olesz instead of Ladislav Smid. Is there a science to it? Sure. Are some GMs and scouts better at it than others? Absolutely. Should teams use the draft to plug obvious deficiencies in their lineup and build a foundation in line with their ultimate direction, rather than just choosing the best player available? Probably. Maybe. I don’t know. Nobody knows, really. Because of the total uncertainty and the lack of coverage these kids get before the draft, it’s really quite unfair (and kinda ignorant too) for the average hockey fan to get apoplectic because their team selected Question Mark A over Question Mark B. Which brings me back to Rangers first selection Alvaro Montoya.

I’m not going to spin out support behind this pick because, quite honestly, I have no idea how he’ll turn out. I’ve never seen him play. And, in fact, if history is any indication (which it usually is), most of the first-selected goalies in a draft year go on to unspectacular careers, or at the very least become overshadowed by another goalie chosen at a later spot (which is why Marek Schwartz is now a player to watch). Nothing gets determined until the player hits NHL ice, no matter who that player is or what Pierre Maguire says. They’re all just prospects with promises and rainbows. Everyone is a star on draft day.

Take, for example, our reigning Stanley Cup champions, the Tampa Bay Lightning. The WORST drafting team in hockey. Aside from winning the lottery for Vinny Lecavalier one year, guess how many players on their everyday roster were actually drafted by the Bolts. Give up? Three — Dmitry Afanasenkov, Pavel Kubina, and Brad Richards (who was probably drafted to keep Lecavalier company). They drafted Alexander Svitov before Stephen Weiss, Stanny Chistov and Tuomo Ruutu. They traded away the pick eventually used to draft future all-star Joni Pitkanen. And yet the road for the next Stanley Cup passes straight through St. Petersburg. So much for building through the draft.

Anyway, to get back to Montoya and the #6 pick, I don't think anyone should be too upset nor surprised by it. The perceived depth of the organization in goal is only wishful thinking. They have one young goalie, Dan Blackburn, coming off a MAJOR injury, not to mention the flaws in his game. Another goalie, Henrik Lundqvist, sounds promising (like every young prospect) but has yet to face NHL-caliber talent, nor does he seem like he's in a rush to do so. Hockey these days consistently proves that the difference between winning and losing is, without question, quality goaltending. Is it really that horrible to nab a player considered by the majority to be the best at his particular position, the most important position on the ice, in a given draft year? That horrible? THAT effin' horrible?

That said, I'm still torn by the choice only because I have visions of Jamie Storr floating in my head. But I'm keeping my fingers crossed, refusing to succumb to the "they could have had [insert unpronouceable European name]" argument. And if his play isn't enough, here's another five reasons to like the newest Ranger-to-be.

5. He really really REALLY wanted to be a Ranger. Almost pathological.
4. Gold medal goaltender at the World Juniors a few months ago.
3. Smoldering Cuban intensity will increase the supermodel presence at MSG by at least 60%.
2. Majoring in kinesiology, whatever that is.
1. You killed his father. Prepare to die.

But enough of my yammering. Even though the diary didn't work out, I did take some notes during this somber and otherwise downbeat 2004 draft, someday to be known as The Year of the Finn.

— I used to complain about ESPN giving the NHL the finger with things like downplaying their draft (whereas the NBA gets its draft on friggin’ prime time), but what's the point anymore. They hate hockey. All afternoon the ESPN ticker read "F U NHL fans for not watching NHL2Nite." Whatever. I wanted to watch women’s golf instead of the second round anyway.

— One look at Alex Ovechkin and I understand why EA Sports doesn’t have these kids do promo spots for their video games like the other sports do. Yikes! GQ ain't calling this kid anytime soon. Maybe he’s a great hockey player, but he looks like something that might burst out of John Hurt’s chest.

— I think the battle between Ovechkin and Malkin over the years will be on par with LeBron James versus Carmello Anthony. That sound you just heard was 15 million NBA fans laughing their ass off.

— Before the draft, with a week of research under my belt, I said the first four picks are locks and then after that anything goes, and I just want to thank the Phoenix Coyotes for proving that point. Pierre Maguire was so stunned when they announced Blake Wheeler that I thought he might swallow his own tongue.

— Another point. Weird selection by the 'Yotes because they were rumored to be interested in Montoya, but if they coveted Wheeler they could have traded down for him. Nice job by Slats to not fall for Gretzky’s bluff attempt to bleed out a second-rounder in a swap of picks. In the offseason TGO should start working on his poker face with Ben Affleck.

— Despite the Internet, mass publication and satellite TV, fashion in Europe is still about ten years behind the rest of the world. I think they're just getting to the grunge phase. And if I ever wanted to make a million dollars, I’d sell Strydex pads in Russia. Some of these poor kids look like they've spent the last three years working the fryalator at the McDonalds in downtown Magnitogorsk. Shake their hands, give them the jersey, then introduce them to a good dermatologist.

— Not only were three Finns taken in the first round, but two of them were named Lauri. That HAS to be a record.

— Speaking of Finns, my personal highlight of this draft was the Rangers trading up to draft Lauri Korpikoski. Great pick. I’ve said it before, and I’ll say it again: every team in the league needs a Finn. Finland is like this magical land filled with elves and talking animals and wizards and people with funny names. I think last season Lauri played on a line with Frodo and Legolas. And when he gave that sweet “I have no idea what’s going on” look as Glen Sather handed him his jersey, I swear I just wanted to hug him. Let's go Lauri!

— Finns aside, I am a little bummed that the Rangers couldn’t peddle some of their second round picks for a chance to draft Wojtek Wolski. He got stolen somewhat because he pulled a Courtney Love right before the draft, and I guess that's never a good sign. But I still don’t think you can ever discount the boost you get from having a big Polish guy on the team named “Woggy.”

— Last point about the Rangers. Clearly I’m a Glen Sather apologist, but I absolutely love the fact that he again managed to infuriate the bulk of Rangers Nation by selecting Montoya. His smarminess is really approaching Dr Michael Mancini on Melrose Place levels. Given that I feel like the draft is much ado about nothing anyway, and Sather has alienated fans so much that they’d complain even if he traded Josh Green for Ovechkin, I sorta admire the fact that he just doesn’t even care about his personal standing anymore. Trumpesque defiancy. He’s does what he wants when he wants, and if you or Pierre Maguire don’t like it, kiss his ass. I'm like Christopher Moltisanti at this point. I’d follow Glen Sather into hell.

— It really doesn’t feel like a draft day without Bobby Clarke ruining everything. Couldn’t he have crashed the stage, bashed Darcy Regier over the head with a steel chair and drafted Drew Stafford under a chorus of boss? This is exactly why TV ratings are down.

— Flipping channels, as a Yankee fan, their loss today serves them right to be so cocky to think they can pull 15-year-old kids out of the stands and start them against the Mets.

— With Ottawa trading Radek Bonk for a third round pick and then having him bounce right back into their division, I think it’s officially time to disconnect the phones from John Muckler’s office. Ouch. I know Bonk is hardly Joe Sakic, but the #77 pick? Muck? Anyone home? Serves Ottawa right for hiring a GM that shows up for work in his pajamas.

— Does TSN have to employ someone to wipe Pierre Maguire’s drool whenever Lou Lamoriello enters a room? I heard an audible squeal when the Devils traded up to draft Travis Zajac, perhaps the big “upside/downside” player in the draft. And while I'm on the subject, does Mike Milbury wake up in a cold sweat screaming the name "Parise!" once a week? I need to know these things.

— After a hour of Nokelainen's and Chipchura's and Mesrazos's, I think every announcer, uniform stitcher and NHL proofreader breathed a sigh of relief when Washington drafted Mike Green.

— Speaking of Washington ... A+ on paper, but at some point I have to think the hockey gods are going to reap their revenge for the way they tanked the season. I wish Ovechkin luck, but I wouldn't be surprised if his episode of TSN's future show "Behind the Blueline" is scheduled between Alexander Daigle's and Patrick Stefan's.

So, all in all, this was a pretty standard NHL draft, top-heavy on forwards maybe, with two expected future stars (the Russians), two guys to keep an eye on (Cam Barker and Andy Ladd), and a bunch of kids with tons of upside. With few trades and the CBA Sword of Damocles hanging over everyone’s head, it perhaps wasn’t the most entertaining two hours in hockey, but I’m excited about some of the players the Rangers drafted, especially the Finn. Lauri the Finn — that’s is how he will be referred to, now and forever. And in a few years we may even be talking about that draft where the Rangers stole Inigo Montoya, future Vezina Trophy winner. That, of course, assumes they even play hockey again.

for what its worth, the goalie tramp is smitten. i loved my shy czech, my goofy swede, my dorky canadian, but.... mmmmm, smoldering cuban.....

*smoking a cigarette*

Posted by: heather on June 30, 2004 12:06 PM