The impressive start by the Rangers has inflated
the expectations for the club.
Let's be realistic and agree that a new goal
is making the playoffs, since pre-season media
reports had them as the worst team in the league.
Talk of competing against teams like Ottawa and
Detroit, though fun, is overly ambitious.
Let's also be realistic that missing the playoffs
would be catastrophic. The fans would be blood-
thirsty, because the rebuilding mantra has been
overshadowed by the team's current position.
A 10-team Race
As of January 16, and using a team's current
points-per-game pace as a guide, the Eastern
Conference projects to be a 10-team race:
Ottawa: 120
Carolina: 119
Philadelphia: 115
Buffalo: 110
Rangers: 104
Toronto: 95
Montreal: 90
New Jersey: 89
Atlanta: 89
Tampa Bay: 88
Florida, Islanders, Boston, Washington and
the Penguins are all 75 points or (much) less.
In this landscape, Atlanta and Tampa Bay are
on the outside looking in, but only 1 point
separates the 7-10 teams.
The Playoff Threshold
Given that teams like New Jersey and Atlanta
have come on strong of late, it is likely that
the entry threshold will rise from the current
90 points to 95.
This is a conclusion qualitatively furthered
by the increased number of conference games,
and the tentative grasp on competition by
teams like Pittsburgh, Islanders, and Boston.
The Rangers' Magic Number
The Rangers have 57 points in 45 games.
In order to reach 95 points, they need to play
.500 hockey over the remaining 37 games.
Considering that the team's record is currently
12 games over .500, it is an attainable goal.
It also means that games against Montreal,
Tampa Bay, Atlanta and New Jersey become
not only legitimate 4-point games, but also key
factors in a season-ending tie.
Keep it in Perspective
There is way too much panic and analysis when
the team loses to elite teams like Ottawa,
Detroit and Philadelphia.
This season will be a success if the team
makes the playoffs.
Subscribers will see a playoff game after an
eight year hiatus.
Young players will get the experience of the
postseason and can then set the bar higher.
Free agents will view the team as a team
on the rise.
Prospects can join the club without feeling
the need to be a savior.
And, who knows how far we can go with a hot
goaltender this postseason once we're in.
It's a long season, folks - keep the in-game
commentary and team analysis in perspective.
Right now, we're ahead of our curve.
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